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Rice boder trade of Vietnam to China in September 2016 (updated on October 11, 2016)

Some updated contents:

  • Rice volume shipped to Hai Phong port in September 2016 is estimated at 190 thousand tons.
  • As per preliminary data from General Department of Vietnam Customs, rice exports through official channel in September 2016 are estimated at 523 thousand tons (including 188 thousand tons of rice exported to China).
  • Cumulative rice exports to China through unofficial channel for the first  months of 2016 are estimated at 1,045 thousand tons, down by 28.2% year on year.
  • Rice exports to China through unofficial channel in October are revised up to 139 thousand tons as rice exports to China through unoffical channel are resumed.

 

Comparing rice exports through unofficial channel in 2015 and 2016 (thousand tons)

 

September

First 9 months

2015

  1.  
  1.  

2016

  1.  
  1.  

 

Rice exports through unofficial channel in 2016 (thousand tons)

 

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Total

2015

578

464

415

390

1846

2016

401

305

340

349

1418

Note: data on rice exports through unofficial channel in Q4 of 2016 are forecast data

 

  • Rice exports through unoffical channel have resumed since late September and early October which is contrary to many forecasts in the previous time when China was on a holiday on occasion of its National Independence Day. Transactions of rice to be exported to China through unofficial channel have been bullished in Cao Bang, Hai Phong and Mekong River Delta. In Cao Bang, traders have accelerated rice delivery cross border and it is possible to deliver rice through many border gates/border paths; and as estimated by traders, the delivered rice volume at some locations is up to 2,000 tons/day and night in the October10-14 period.

 

  • Rice exports to China through unoffiical channel (gray trade) will have great impacts on the supply and prices of domestic rice at the current time and in late 2016 when the raw rice supply is tight and Filippino traders resume procurement of rice.

 

Rice exports for the first 9 months of 2016 vs. the same period of 2015 (thousand tons)

Criteria/Time

First 9 months of 2016

First 9 months of 2015

Changes (%)

Exports through official channel

3405

 4,539

-25.00

Exports to China through official channel

1195

 1,783

-32.96

Exports to China through unofficial channel

900

 1,456

-38.20

Total exports to China

2096

 3,240

-35.31

Total revised exports

4305

 5,996

-28.21