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Rice boder trade of Vietnam to China in October 2016 (updated on November 11, 2016)

Comparing rice exports through unofficial channel in 2015 and 2016 (thousand tons)

2015

183

1639

2016

147

1193

Rice exports through unofficial channel in 2016 (thousand tons)

 

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Total

2015

578

464

415

390

1846

2016

401

305

340

357

1403

Note: data on rice exports through unofficial channel in Q4 of 2016 are forecast data

  • Rice exports to China through unofficial channel in November have slowed down because of a lot of rain at Cao Bang border gates; rice prices in Hai PHong have soared and CNY/VND exchange rate has been revising down. As revealed by traders at the border area, the profits from rice business are very low, so many traders have ceased rice transactions, they have turned to trade other commodities with higher profits.

 

  • Rice exports to China through unoffiical channel (gray trade) are forecast to continue having great impacts on domestic rice prices in late 2016 when autumn-winter rice harvest ends and enteprises start delivering rice to the Filipino private sector in late November and early December.

 

Rice exports through unofficial channel in October 2016 and forecast on rice exports through unofficial channel for 2016 (thousand tons)

Criteria/Time

 

1/2016

2/2016

3/2016

4/2016

05/2016

6/2016

Rice volume shipped to Hai Phong port

1

133

55

304

171

132

98

Rice shipments from Hai Phong port to China

2=1*ratio%

93

46

213

120

92

69

Rice volume (cont) shipped from Saigon port to Hai Phong port

3=1*ratio %

33

14

76

43

33

25

Rice volume (cont) shipped from Hai Phong and then to be exported to China

4=3*40%

13

5

23

13

10

7

Rice exports to China cross border (official channel)

5

2

1

6

12

7

2

Rice exports (unofficial channel-Hai Phong port)

6=2+4-5

105

51

230

120

96

74

Rice exports through other unofficial channels

7

5

5

5

5

5

5

Total rice exports to China cross border (unofficial channel)

8=6+7

110

56

235

125

101

79

 

Criteria/Time

7/2016

8/2016

9/2016

10/2016

11/2016

12/2016

Tổng

Rice volume shipped to Hai Phong port

121

117

190

186

120

150

1,776

Rice shipments from Hai Phong port to China

85

82

133

130

84

105

1,252

Rice volume (cont) shipped from Saigon port to Hai Phong port

30

29

48

47

30

38

444

Rice volume (cont) shipped from Hai Phong and then to be exported to China

9

9

14

14

9

11

138

Rice exports to China cross border (official channel)

1

3

2

1

5

5

47

Rice exports (unofficial channel-Hai Phong port)

92

87

146

143

88

111

1,343

Rice exports through other unofficial channels

5

5

5

5

5

5

60

Total rice exports to China cross border (unofficial channel)

97

92

151

148

93

116

1,403

 

Criteria/Time

 

1/2016

2/2016

3/2016

4/2016

05/2016

6/2016

7/2016

8/2016

9/2016

10/2016

Exports through official channel

1

508

469

593

469

310

328

285

442

523

393

Exports to China through official channel

2

60

96

308

240

97

112

129

153

188

167

Exports to China through unofficial channel

3

115

56

235

125

101

79

97

92

151

148

Total exports to China

4=2+3

175

152

543

365

198

191

226

245

339

315

Total revised exports

5=1+3

623

525

828

594

411

407

383

534

674

541

Note: Data on rice exports for October, November and December 2016 are forecast data.

Rice exports for the first 10 months of 2016 vs. the same period of 2015 (thousand tons)

Criteria/Time

First 10 months of 2016

First 10 months of 2015

Changes (%)

Exports through official channel

4,321

5,415

-20.21

Exports to China through official channel

1,551

1,976

-21.54

Exports to China through unofficial channel

1,199

1,640

-26.91

Total exports to China

2,749

3,616

-23.97

Total revised exports

5,520

7,055

-21.76