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Vietnam Rice Annual Report 2015 & Outlook for 2016

Vietnam Market Analysis and Forecast Joint Stock Company is the leading provider of in-depth ANALYSES & FORECASTS on agro-commodity sectors. We would like to introduce Vietnam Rice Annual Report 2015 & Outlook for 2016 (scheduled to be released in March 2016), with detailed contents as follows:

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES    

LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF PHOTOS    

LIST OF BOXES    

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY    

PART 1: WORLD RICE MARKET IN 2015 & OUTLOOK FOR 2016    
1. World rice production and trade in 2015    
2. World rice prices in 2015    
2.1. Export rice prices of Thailand in 2015    
2.2. Export rice prices of India in 2015    
3. Outlook on world rice market in 2016    

PART 2: RICE SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE OF MEKONG RIVER DELTA IN 2015 AND OUTLOOK FOR VIETNAM’S EXPORTS IN 2016    
1. Rice supply-demand balance of Mekong River Delta in 2015    
2. Outlook on Vietnam’s rice exports in 2016    
2.1 Rice supply-demand balance for the first 6 months of 2016    
2.2 Rice supply-demand balance in 2016 by quarter    

PART 3: VIETNAM RICE MARKET IN 2015    
1. Domestic production    
2. Domestic prices    

PART 4: RICE EXPORTS OF VIETNAM IN 2015    
1. Export rice prices of Vietnam in 2015    
2. Rice exports through official channel    
3. Rice exports through unofficial channel    
4. Total revised exports    
5. Rice export market of Vietnam    
6. Rice exports of Vietnam by rice grade and variety    

PART 5: RICE EXPORTING-IMPORTING ENTERPRISES    
1. Top exporting enterprises    
1.1. Top exporting enterprises    
1.2. Control of top rice exporting enterprises    
1.3. Changes in rank of top 10 rice exporting enterprises    
2. Top rice importing enterprises    
2.1. Top rice importing enterprises    
2.2. Control of top rice importing enterprises    
2.3. Changes in rank of top 10 rice importing enterprises    

PART 6: FRAGRANT RICE MARKET IN 2015    
1. Fragrant rice production in Vietnam    
2. Exports of fragrant rice in 2015    
3. Fragrant rice exporting-importing enterprises    
4. Fragrant rice supply-demand balance in 2015    
5. Analysis on fragrant rice in Can Tho and Long An based on AgroMonitor’s field trips    

PART 7: GLUTINOUS RICE MARKET IN 2015    
1. Rice production in 2015    
2. Exports of glutinous rice in 2015    
3. Glutinous rice exporting-importing enterprises    

PART 8: GRAY-TRADE RICE ANALYSIS    
1. Gray-trade rice export value chain of Cao Bang    
2. Gray-trade rice export value chain of Lao Cai    
3. Analysis on value chain of rice transported from Cambodia into Vietnam    

PART 9: RICE VESSELS AT SAIGON PORT AND HAI PHONG PORT IN 2015    

PART 10: ANALYSIS ON RICE SECTOR STRUCTURE    
1. Rice value chain    
1.1. Farmers    
1.2. Traders    
1.3. Processing and exporting enterprises    
1.4. The Vietnam Food Assocation (VFA)    
1.5. Ministry of Industry and Trade    
1.6. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development    
1.7. Banks    
2. Swot analysis for rice sector    
2.1. Strengths    
2.2. Weaknesses    
2.3. Opportunities    
2.4. Threats    

PART 11: RICE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS    1

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Rice prices of Thailand, 1/2012-12/2015 (US$/ton, FOB)    
Figure 2: Rice prices of India and Pakistan, 1/2012-12/2015 (US$/ton, FOB)    
Figure 3: Export 5% broken price of Vietnam, India and Thailand by week, 1/2014-12/2015 (US$/ton, FOB)    
Figure 4: Prices of raw rice and milled rice at warehouses in Kien Giang by week, 2013-2015 (VND/kg)    
Figure 5: Prices of 5% broken raw rice and milled rice and offers of 5% brokens by week in 2015    
Figure 6: Prices of milled rice in some localities by month, 2013-2015 (VND/kg, FAS)    
Figure 7: Export 5% broken prices of Vietnam, India and Thailand by week in 2015 (US$/ton, FOB)    
Figure 8: Rice exports of Vietnam by month, 2014-2015 (thousand tons, million US$)    
Figure 9: Route of rice to be shipped to the North    
Figure 10: Total rice exports through both official channel and unofficial channel by month, 2014-2015 (thousand tons)    
Figure 11: Total rice exports to China through both official channel and unofficial channel by month, 2014-2015 (thousand tons)    
Figure 12: Rice export volume structure by market in 2015 and first 11 months of 2015    
Figure 13: Rice export volume structure by rice grade/variety for the first 11 months of 2015 and 2014    
Figure 14: Top 10 rice exporting enterprises by rice grade/variety for the first 11 months of 2015 (thousand tons)    
Figure 15: Top 10 rice exporting enterprises by rice grade/variety in 2014 (thousand tons)    
Figure 16: Top 10 rice importing enterprises by rice grade/variety for the first 11 months of 2015 (thousand tons)    
Figure 17: Top 10 rice importing enterprises by rice grade/variety in 2014 (thousand tons)    
Figure 18: Distribution of fragrant rice varieties planted in Mekong River Delta    
Figure 19: Prices of Jasmine milled rice by week, 2014-2015 (VND/kg, FAS)    
Figure 20: Exports of fragrant rice by month, 2014-2015 (thousand tons)    
Figure 21: Exports of Jasmine rice by month, 2014-2015 (thousand tons)    
Figure 22: Exports of OM 4900 rice by month, 2014-2015 (thousand tons)    
Figure 23: Exports of KDM rice by month, 2014-2015 (thousand tons)    
Figure 24: Exports of fragrant broken rice by month, 2014-2015 (thousand tons)    
Figure 25: Fragrant rice export structure by variety in 2014 and first 11 months of 2015
Figure 26: Prices of three biggest Jasmine rice export contracts, 2014-2015 (US$/ton, FOB)    
Figure 27: Prices of three biggest OM 4900 rice export contracts, 2014-2015 (US$/ton, FOB)    
Figure 28: Prices of three biggest KDM rice export contracts, 2014-2015 (US$/ton, FOB)    
Figure 29: Distribution of fragrant rice varieties planted in Long An in winter-spring crop    
Figure 30: Distribution of fragrant rice varieties in Can Tho in winter-spring crop    
Figure 31: Vietnam fragrant rice export value chain    
Figure 32: Prices of glutinous rice at warehouses in Long An by week in 2015 (VND/kg)
Figure 33: Glutinous rice exports by month, 2014-2015 (thousand tons)    
Figure 34: Exports of 100% broken glutinous rice by month, 2014-2015 (thousand tons)    
Figure 35: Exports of 10% broken glutinous rice by month, 2014-2015 (thousand tons)    
Figure 36: Glutinous rice export structure by rice grade in 2014 and first 11 months of 2015 (%)    
Figure 37: Prices of three biggest 10% broken glutinous rice export contracts, 2014-2015 (US$/ton, FOB)    
Figure 38: Distribution of glutinous rice varieties in Long An in winter-spring crop    
Figure 39: Gray-trade rice export route from Cao Bang to China    
Figure 40: Gray-trade rice export value chain    
Figure 41: Gray-trade rice export route from Lao Cai to China    
Figure 42: Value chain of Cambodian paddies transported into Vietnam    
Figure 43: Developments of rice volume (vessel) shipped to Hai Phong port by week in 2015 (ton)    
Figure 44: Rice volume loaded onto vessels at Saigon port to depart for other markets by month, 2014-2015 (thousand tons)    
Figure 45: Rice value chain    

 

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Global rice production and trade, 2012-2016 (million tons)    
Table 2: USDA’s 2015-December estimate on 2015 rice exports and forecast on 2016 rice exports (million tons)    
Table 3: USDA’s 2015-December estimate on 2015 rice imports and forecast on 2016 rice imports (million tons)    
Table 4: Indicators of rice supply-demand balance of Mekong River Delta in 2015    
Table 5: Rice supply-demand balance of Mekong River Delta in 2015    
Table 6: Rice supply-demand balance of Mekong River Delta for the first 6 months of 2016    
Table 7: Rice supply-demand balance of Mekong River Delta in 2016    
Table 8: Rice area, yield and production of the South in 2015    
Table 9: Commodity rice production in 2015 of Mekong River Delta provinces    
Table 10: Rice area, yield and production of the North in 2015    
Table 11: Rice harvesting/planting progress of Mekong River Delta in 2015    
Table 12: Rice harvesting/planting progress of Mekong River Delta in 2014    
Table 13: Winter-spring rice planting progress as of December 11, 2015    
Table 14: Plan on Vietnam rice production in 2016    
Table 15: Prices of some 5% broken milled rice export contracts in 2015 (FOB)    
Table 16: Prices of some 10% broken milled rice export contracts in 2015 (FOB)    
Table 17: Prices of some 15% broken milled rice export contracts in 2015 (FOB)    
Table 18: Prices of some 25% broken milled rice export contracts in 2015 (FOB)    
Table 19: Prices of some 100% broken rice export contracts in 2015 (FOB)    
Table 20: Prices of some fragrant rice export contracts in 2015 (FOB)    
Table 21: Prices of some fragrant broken rice export contracts in 2015 (FOB)    
Table 22: Prices of some glutinous rice export contracts in 2015 (FOB)    
Table 23: Prices of some parboiled rice export contracts in 2015 (FOB)    
Table 24: Prices of some Japanese rice export contracts in 2015 (FOB)    
Table 25: Rice stocks and rice volume in registered export contracts in 2015 (thousand tons)    
Table 26: Rice stocks and rice volume in registered export contracts in 2014 (thousand tons)    
Table 27: Rice exports by month, 2013-2015 (thousand tons)    
Table 28: Update on indicators for rice exports on December 10, 2015 (thousand tons)    
Table 29: Rice volume shipped to Hai Phong port, 1/2014-12/2015 (ton)    
Table 30: Rice exports through unofficial channel for the first 11 months of 2015    
Table 31: Update on indicators as of December 9, 2015 (thousand tons)    
Table 32: Rice exports through unofficial channel, 2014-2015 (thousand tons)    
Table 33: Rice production and exports of Vietnam, 2013-2015 (million tons)    
Table 34: AgrMonitor’s forecast on 2016 rice exports (million tons)    
Table 35: Rice exports of Vietnam to some major markets, 2014-2015 (Estimate from USDA and General Department of Vietnam Customs) (thousand tons)    
Table 36: Changes in rank of top 10 export markets, 2014-2015    
Table 37: Rice exports to other markets for the first 11 months of 2015 (ton)    
Table 38: Rice exports to continents for the first 11 months of 2015 (ton)    
Table 39: Rice exports to continents in 2014 (ton)    
Table 40: Top 20 export markets by rice grade/variety for the first 11 months of 2015    
Table 41: Rice exports of Vietnam by rice grade/variety for the first 11 months of 2015 (ton)    
Table 42: Rice exports of Vietnam by rice grade/variety in 2014 (ton)    
Table 43: Export share of top 10 enterprises in volume in 2014 and first 11 months of 2015 (ton)    
Table 44: Ranks of top rice exporting enterprises in volume in 2014 and first 11 months of 2015    
Table 45: Share of top 10 rice importing enterprises in volume in 2014 and first 11 months of 2015 (ton)    
Table 46: Ranks of top rice importing enterprises in volume in 2014 and first 11 months of 2015    
Table 47: Estimate on 2014/15 winter-spring fragrant rice area in Mekong River Delta    
Table 48: Major fragrant rice varieties cultivated in Mekong River Delta    
Table 49: Top 20 markets importing fragrant rice by variety for the first 11 months of 2015 (ton)    
Table 50: Exports of fragrant rice to China by month in 2015 (ton)    
Table 51: Exports of fragrant rice to Ghana by month in 2015 (ton)    
Table 52: Top 10 markets importing fragrant broken rice in 2014 and first 11 months of 2015    
Table 53: Top 10 enterprises exporting fragrant rice for the first 11 months of 2015 (ton)    
Table 54: Top 10 enterprises importing Vietnamese fragrant rice for the first 11 months of 2015 (ton)    
Table 55: Fragrant rice supply-demand balance in 2015    
Table 56: Fragrant rice supply-demand balance, 2014-2015    
Table 57: Differences between Long An and Can Tho fragrant rice    
Table 58: Estimate on winter-spring fragrant rice production in Long An and Can Tho    
Table 59: Some enterprises supplying Jasmine rice    
Table 60: Some Jasmine rice exporting enterprises    
Table 61: Expenses and profits of traders for 2015 winter-spring Jasmine 85    
Table 62: Expenses and profits of warehouses (excluding processing charge)    
Table 63: Expenses and profits of Jasmine 85 rice exporters    
Table 64: Top 10 glutinous rice export markets of Vietnam for the first 11 months of 2015 (ton)    
Table 65: Glutinous rice exports to China by rice grade in 2015 (ton)    
Table 66: Top 10 glutinous rice exporting enterprises, 2014-2015 (thousand tons)    
Table 67: Top 10 glutinous rice importing enterprises, 2014-2015 (thousand tons)    
Table 68: Rice exports to China through official channel in Cao Bang (thousand tons)    
Table 69: Expenses of traders in the border area for IR 50404 5% broken milled rice (75-ton rice truck) in Ta Lung on March 16    
Table 70: Rice exports to China through official channel in Lao Cai (ton)    
Table 71: Expenses of traders at the border area for IR 50404 5% broken milled rice (30-ton rice truck) in Lao Cai on April 15    
Table 72: Some differences in gray trade between Cao Bang and Lao Cai    
Table 73: Estimate on Cambodian rice volume poured into Vietnam by quarter in 2014 (ton)    
Table 74: Costs and profits of warehouse owners in Tinh Bien (An Giang) (VND/kg)    
Table 75: Rice volume (vessel) shipped to Hai Phong port by month in 2015 (thousand tons)    
Table 76: Rice volume (vessel) shipped to Hai Phong port by month in 2014 (thousand tons)    
Table 77: Rice volume loaded onto vessels at Saigon port to depart for other markets by month in 2015 (ton)    
Table 78: Rice volume loaded at Saigon port to be exported to other markets by owner in 2015 (thousand tons)    
Table 79: Rice volume loaded at Saigon port to be exported to other markets by owner in 2014 (thousand tons)    
Table 80: Expenses and profits of raw rice traders    
Table 81: Expenses and profits of rice mills    
Table 82: Expenses and profits of warehouses supplying milled rice    
Table 83: Expenses and profits of exporting enterprises    
 

LIST OF PHOTOS
Photo 1: Rice delivery at Ta Lung border gate (Cao Bang)    
Photo 2: Rice trucks lining to deliver rice in Ta Lung (Cao Bang)    
Photo 3: Newly-built border path    
Photo 4: Rice trucks lining to deliver rice in Quang Uyen    
Photo 5: Rice is loaded into smaller trucks from containers in Quang Uyen    
Photo 6: Rice trucks at KM6 (Lao Cai)    
Photo 7: Rice trucks linging to deliver rice at KM6 (Lao Cai)    
Photo 8: Rice delivery by boat at KM 6 (Lao Cai)    
Photo 9: KM 0 border gate (Lao Cai)     
Photo 10: Muong Khuong border gate amid the cross-border trade ban is imposed    
Photo 11: Border path in Na Loc (Lao Cai)    
Photo 12: Rice trucks from Cambodia to warehouses in Tinh Bien (An Giang)    
Photo 13: Rice barges from warehouses in Tinh Bien to domestic warehouses of Vietnam    
Photo 14: Some photos on Dinh Vu port (Hai Phong) taken in AgroMonitor’s field trip in March 2014    


LIST OF BOXES
Box 1: KDM rice    
Box 2: Some fragrant rice warehouses in Can Tho    
Box 3: Some warehouses supplying rice for domestic consumption    
Box 4: Some discussed information about glutinous rice enterprises    
Box 5: Some notes on development strategy of An Giang Plant Protection Joint Stock Company-AGPPS)